Thursday, October 09, 2008

I have said this before, but there's a reason why I don't gamble.

I managed to pick two of the four division series, but my World Series prediction (Angels vs. Cubs) was way off the mark. The Dodgers win over the Cubs was a surprise to almost everyone, but it looked to me like Chicago was playing with the weight of 100 years of Cubs fans expectations on their shoulders. A Johnny Damon or Kevin Millar to lighten the mood on that team might have helped.

Of course, I couldn't be happier that I blew my pick on the Red Sox-Angels series. I really wasn't expecting the Angels to play so poorly at critical moments, and I thought injuries to Lowell, Beckett and Drew would hurt the Sox more than they did.

With Dodgers-Phillies starting tonight, here are my picks for the League Championship Series.

Dodgers over Phillies in 6: The Dodgers are white hot, Rafael Furcal is healthy and getting on base in front of Manny and the rest of the Dodgers big hitters. The Phillies offense is excellent, but I think their starting pitching is suspect after Cole Hamels and Brett Myers (and I'm not that sure about Myers). The Dodgers don't have anyone as good as Hamels, but I think their starters are better from top to bottom.

Red Sox over Rays in 6: The Red Sox seem to be able to turn it on at just the right time, as they proved against the Angels in the first round. They'll miss Mike Lowell in the middle of the lineup, but it's pretty obvious he can't be effective until he gets that hip taken care of. The Rays are a darn good team, but I think the Sox are just a little bit better in this series.

Of course, this is dependent on Josh Beckett's game 3 performance being the result of rust and not an injury. If Beckett isn't Beckett, all bets are off.


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